Baccarat Probability Tables

Every hand of baccarat is decided by mathematics long before the cards leave the shoe. The suspense is real, but the probabilities are fixed — and knowing them is the difference between an informed player and one flying blind. This dossier lays out the numbers in full: win rates, loss rates, house edges, and payout returns for every standard bet on the table. Study them, and you'll never need to guess again.

The Three Core Bets at a Glance

Baccarat's elegance lies in its simplicity. There are effectively three bets available on a standard table: Banker, Player, and Tie. Each carries a distinct probability profile and a distinct cost to play. The table below summarises the key figures for an eight-deck game — by far the most common configuration in both land-based and live online casinos.

Bet	Win Probability	Loss Probability	Tie Probability	Payout	House Edge
Banker	45.86%	44.62%	9.52%	1:1 (minus 5% commission)	1.06%
Player	44.62%	45.86%	9.52%	1:1	1.24%
Tie	9.52%	90.48%	—	8:1	14.36%

These figures assume a standard 8-deck shoe and a 5% Banker commission. Ties are treated as a push (no win, no loss) for Banker and Player bets — which is why win and loss probabilities for those two bets don't sum to 100%.

Breaking Down the Banker Bet

The Banker bet wins slightly more often than the Player bet — 45.86% versus 44.62% — because the drawing rules give the Banker hand a statistical edge when it acts second. The casino neutralises that advantage by charging a 5% commission on Banker wins. Even after that levy, the Banker bet retains the lowest house edge on the table at 1.06%. For a full explanation of why the commission exists and how it's calculated, see Why the Banker Bet Pays Commission.

Effective Banker Payout

At 5% commission, a winning £100 Banker bet returns £95 profit rather than £100. Over the long run, for every £100 wagered on Banker, the house expects to retain approximately £1.06. That's exceptional value by casino standards — and it's the reason disciplined players almost always favour the Banker side. See the full comparison at Banker vs Player: Which Bet Wins More?.

Breaking Down the Player Bet

The Player bet wins 44.62% of hands and pays a clean 1:1 with no commission deducted. Despite the simpler payout, the house edge is slightly higher at 1.24% — still remarkably low by casino standards, but measurably worse than Banker over any meaningful sample size. The practical difference between 1.06% and 1.24% may feel abstract in a single session, but across thousands of hands it compounds materially.

The Tie Bet: A Probability Trap

The Tie bet lands just 9.52% of the time in an eight-deck game — roughly once every ten to eleven hands. The standard payout of 8:1 sounds generous until you do the maths: fair value for a 9.52% probability event would require a payout of approximately 9.5:1. At 8:1, the house edge balloons to 14.36% — over thirteen times the cost of a Banker bet. Some tables offer a 9:1 Tie payout, which reduces the edge to around 4.84%, but even that remains far above Banker and Player territory. For the full case against the Tie, visit The Tie Bet Trap.

Probability Tables by Number of Decks

The number of decks in the shoe has a modest but real effect on the probabilities. Fewer decks nudge the house edge downward — a single-deck game, for example, has a Banker house edge of around 1.01%. Most players will encounter 6- or 8-deck shoes exclusively, but it's worth knowing the landscape.

Decks	Banker House Edge	Player House Edge	Tie House Edge (8:1)
1	1.01%	1.29%	15.75%
6	1.06%	1.24%	14.44%
8	1.06%	1.24%	14.36%

As you can see, the difference between 6 and 8 decks is negligible for Banker and Player bets. The deck count matters far more to the Tie, where the edge shifts by over a full percentage point from one to eight decks.

What Probability Tables Cannot Tell You

Here's the classified caveat: probability tables describe long-run averages, not short-run certainty. In any given shoe, the Banker can lose ten hands in a row, and the Tie can appear three times in twenty hands. Variance is real. No probability table — and no betting system — can override the house edge on any individual session. Systems that claim otherwise are myths. The tables give you the best available information; they do not hand you a guarantee.

Pattern-spotting tools such as the Shoe Pattern Board can help you track results visually, while the Q Branch staking calculator lets you model how stake sizing interacts with session variance. Use them as orientation aids, not oracle machines.

Applying the Numbers at the Table

• Stick to Banker or Player — both carry sub-1.25% house edges; no other casino game offers two bets this competitive on a single table.
• Avoid the Tie as a primary wager — at 14.36% edge, it erodes bankrolls faster than almost any mainstream bet.
• Know that ties are pushes — if you bet Banker and the hand ties, your stake is returned. You do not lose it.
• Understand the commission arithmetic — on a £20 Banker win, commission is £1, leaving £19 net profit. Keep this in mind when calculating session results.

For a broader strategic framework built around these probabilities, the Baccarat Strategy Guide is your next recommended briefing.

Responsible gambling note: Baccarat probability tables are informational tools. No mathematical knowledge changes the fact that the house holds an edge on every bet — and that edge ensures the casino wins over time. Set session limits before you play, and treat any wins as a bonus rather than an expectation. If gambling stops being enjoyable, please contact BeGambleAware at begambleaware.org or call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133.